IS THERE AN INDIAN MUSLIM VOTE?

As the ‘Great Indian Election Jamboree 2009’ draws to a close and everyone waits with bated breath for the results to come out on May 16, 2009, poll analysts are working overtime to analyze who voted for whom and who will come out trumps. From politicians, political parties and their supporters to the ubiquitous media crews, it has been a tough two months for everyone involved. Campaign tours have been rhetorically charged. On several occasions it was difficult to say what was generating more heat – the election speeches or the torrid summer!

As the decibel levels at election rallies and television studios increased, one question that everyone was asking was “who would the Indian Muslim vote for?” This is one question that never ceases to amuse me. In fact it always brings forth a counter question – Is there an Indian Muslim vote? Let me try to answer this one.

The ‘Muslim vote’ theory is an extension of a common myth – that the Indian Muslim community is a monolithic block. But for the basic tenets of Islam, Muslims from different parts of India have little in common. A Muslim from Bihar is closer to a Hindu from Bihar than to a Muslim from Tamil Nadu or Kerala. Similarly a Konkani Muslim has nothing in common with a Kashmiri Muslim. Be it their language, food, dress, customs or rituals – Muslims live in, and represent different realms of an extremely diverse Indian society. It is just their religion which provides a connection amongst the Muslims living in different parts of India. Fact is that they share so much more with Hindus (and the followers of other religions) of their region, than with Muslims of other regions. Thus, to say that Muslims of India are the same everywhere is nothing more than a myth. However, the myth becomes a handy tool for right-wing groups (both Hindu and Muslim) looking to make a point whilst addressing their respective constituencies.

The ‘Muslim vote’ theory, as I mentioned earlier, takes off from the above myth. Right-wing political parties like the Bharatiya Janata Party and Shiv Sena (in Maharashtra) and the extreme right-wing groups like the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, Bajrang Dal and Rashtriya Swayam Sewak Sangh who constantly voice their concerns against the alleged ‘Muslim appeasement’, have been behind the myth of ‘Muslim vote’ gaining popularity and being discussed by the hoi polloi and intelligentsia alike. Its basic purpose, in my opinion, was to galvanize and build a ‘Hindu vote bank’ as opposed to the ‘Muslim vote bank.’ Frightening specters of a Muslim takeover of India, replete with warped examples from Indian history and references to Muslim multiple-marriages and lack of family planning (more myths!), would often be created to fire up the minds of those who were vulnerable in the non-Muslim, non-Christian (both Muslims and Christians being seen as outsiders) sections of the Indian society.

Thankfully a recent study undertaken by the Center for the Study of Developing Societies and Lokniti (both New Delhi based) has finally provided scientific wherewithal to dismantle the myth of the ‘Muslim vote’. The statistical information and analysis provided here has been gleaned from the above-mentioned study ( See report in The Hindu dated April 20, 2009 at http://www.hindu.com/2009/04/20/stories/2009042053731200.htm )

The myths first; there are five very common beliefs about the political behavior of Indian Muslims:
- First, they vote in large numbers and participate more in politics, much more than the rest of the electorate.
- Secondly, they vote ‘en bloc’ for one candidate or party.
- Thirdly, Muslim voters are more ‘strategic’ in their voting and tend to hold back their decisions until the last moment.
- Fourthly, they are less autonomous in their decision making and more likely to be influenced by clerics or traditional community leaders, guided more by pan-Islamic or community issues rather than by quotidian interests.
- Finally, they are less supportive of democracy than the rest of the population.

And now some facts from the study:
+ Muslims constitute 13.4 per cent of the country’s population.
+ Most Muslims live in constituencies where they do not account for even 10 per cent of the electorate.
+ Muslim turnout in elections is not very different from the rest of the electors. In the last four general elections, the turnout among Muslims was 59 per cent while the all-India figure was 60 per cent. In fact, the figures in 2004 suggest the turnout among Muslims was much lower than average.
+ When it comes to more active forms of engagement such as participation in election campaigns, there is virtually nothing that separates Muslims from Hindus or indeed from any other religious minority.
+ Muslims are as likely to declare themselves members of a party or identify with a political party (though a little more likely to dislike a party) as Hindus.
+ In 2004, the Congress and its allies got 53 per cent of the Muslim vote; the BJP and its allies got about 11 per cent; the Samajwadi Party got 16 per cent. 20 per cent was split over other parties – certainly not an example of en bloc voting!
+ Like everyone else, Muslim voters are first of all influenced by the party, then by the candidate, followed by such things as caste.
+ Muslim men and women are as influenced by clerics or others in deciding who to vote for as any other section of the population. As for making up their minds about who to vote for, Muslims are no more ‘strategic’ than others.

Issues of the common Muslim aren’t very different from the common Hindu or Sikh or Christian. And more often than not, it is issues like roti (food), kapda (clothing), makaan (shelter /housing), naukri (employment); add to this Bijli, Sadak, Paani – that is, basic requirements for leading a decent, human life – that decide who the common Indian votes for. And the Indian Muslim is no different.